Algumas reflexões acerca dos 'ciclos longos' na economia capitalista
Resumo
Abstract
The behavior of capitalistic economy after the war - a long period of economic expansion (up to 1960), and one of recession and inflation -has brought back the discussion of "Long cycles". This is happening because the attempt in under-standing the dymanics of the present capitalistic economy greatly depends on a clear vision of that specific period in history. The present essay, which is based on Ernest Mandel's theory of "Long cycles", intends to develop some considerations that deal with this subject.
The first of them refers to factors that arouse the development of a period with a more enduring tendency of expansion as well as to factors that incite its breakdown and which, therefore, determine the dawn of a long period of recession. As far as the determination of "Long cycles" is concerned, Mandel's theory stresses the dynamic production agents damaged in their totality due to devaluation of capital.
The second consideration deals with the differentiated performance of private capital in relation to each of these periods. A quick glance at history shows that private capita I does not necessarily need to have the same performance as economy on the whole. I n other words, the tendency to recession (or expansion) is characterized to its totality but not compulsorily to all private capital.
Finally, there is the aspect of technical progress in capitalistic economy, because Mandel establishes a vinculation between radical transformations in energy (the transformations that affect engines and their respective fuel) and the development of more enduring periods of expansion. Actually, the concept of "technological revolution" -as he calls the above-mentioned changes -exceeds the most common meaning of technological renewal whose goal would be the formation of predominant increase of labor productivity which, in a way, is a means of investment. The "technologic! revolution" is therefore, the main dynamic basis of the more enduring periods of expansion.
The behavior of capitalistic economy after the war - a long period of economic expansion (up to 1960), and one of recession and inflation -has brought back the discussion of "Long cycles". This is happening because the attempt in under-standing the dymanics of the present capitalistic economy greatly depends on a clear vision of that specific period in history. The present essay, which is based on Ernest Mandel's theory of "Long cycles", intends to develop some considerations that deal with this subject.
The first of them refers to factors that arouse the development of a period with a more enduring tendency of expansion as well as to factors that incite its breakdown and which, therefore, determine the dawn of a long period of recession. As far as the determination of "Long cycles" is concerned, Mandel's theory stresses the dynamic production agents damaged in their totality due to devaluation of capital.
The second consideration deals with the differentiated performance of private capital in relation to each of these periods. A quick glance at history shows that private capita I does not necessarily need to have the same performance as economy on the whole. I n other words, the tendency to recession (or expansion) is characterized to its totality but not compulsorily to all private capital.
Finally, there is the aspect of technical progress in capitalistic economy, because Mandel establishes a vinculation between radical transformations in energy (the transformations that affect engines and their respective fuel) and the development of more enduring periods of expansion. Actually, the concept of "technological revolution" -as he calls the above-mentioned changes -exceeds the most common meaning of technological renewal whose goal would be the formation of predominant increase of labor productivity which, in a way, is a means of investment. The "technologic! revolution" is therefore, the main dynamic basis of the more enduring periods of expansion.
Palavras-chave
Ciclos econômicos; Desenvolvimento econômico
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PDFISSN 1980-2668