Events related to the super cycle of commodity prices in the XXI century

Abstract

ABSTRACT A highlight of the twenty-first century is the valuation of commodity prices. In conventional manner, imbalances between supply and demand are commonly cited as the sole determinants to the behavior of commodity prices. In this century the China-effect is the most cited on the demand side. On the supply side gains importance the supply shocks due to climate problems and the small supply growth in a context of world economic acceleration. Alternatively, this article discusses other factors related to the super cycle of commodity prices in the twenty-first century, namely: the increase in oil prices and the consequent increase in costs for other commodities, the weak dollar, small interest rates, and financial speculation. Key words Commodity price cycle; effect-China; cost shock. Artigo recebido em jul. 2012.