Aspectos da economia mundial e brasileira em 2011

Abstract

This article aims to address the economic situation in Brazil and worldwide in 2011 through the analysis of certain variables over the past years. Internationally, there is the attempt to recover the U.S. economy after 2008 crisis, hampered by rising political debate around evolution of public debt. In Europe, the prospect of a prolonged recession seems the most likely scenario, because the measures taken by countries in crisis appear to be recessive. Meanwhile, Asia remains growing above the other continents. Thus, the difference in growth rates shows a detachment in world history, in which the Asian continent replaces the core-countries in the leadership of economic dynamism. Nationally, there is shown the inverse of expectations during 2011, after a promising beginning of the year. This movement was manifested in the reversal of economic policy in the pursuit of a low interest rate. It should be noted at this point the unprecedented affinity between the fiscal and monetary policies. It presents also the behavior of economic activity, strongly influenced by the expansion of domestic demand. Finally, we attempt to analyze the external sector, that shows a dependence on capital inflows to sustain a current account balance increasingly negative. Key words: international and brazilian economics scenarium. Artigo recebido em 31 jan. 2012.