Behavior of the consumer and Brazilian industrial entrepreneur degree of confidence in the years 2010-2011

Abstract

ABSTRACT The degree of confidence of economic agents and their expectations of future events and the situation may impact on their intertemporal decisions, so that positive or negative perceptions of the environment can either enhance or restrict consumption, investment and industrial production. For this reason, some indicators have been developed by institutions such as the National Industry Confederation (CNI) and the Federation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism of the State of São Paulo (Fecomércio) to follow up the confidence of entrepreneurs and consumers. The objective of this paper is to analyze the behavior of the indexes of consumer confidence and of the Brazilian industrialist vis-à-vis the changes in a specific set of indicators that reflect cyclical conditions of the business environment in which both groups operate. To this end, we consider, in the case of the behavior of the ICC, the evolution of indicators of employment, income and inflation. In the case of ICEI, we considered the Producer Price Index for Large Industrial Products (IPA origin - industrial products), the index of industry sales, the real effective exchange rate (INPC - manufactured exports) and Social Contribution on Net Profits (CSLL) as a proxy of corporate profit. For purposes of analysis, we took the period between 2010 and 2011 biennium marked by intra-party transition in the federal government. Key words Consumer confidence; industrial entrepreneur confidence; confidence indexes. Artigo recebido em 30 jan. 2012