Há dominância fiscal na economia brasileira? Uma análise empírica para o período do Governo Lula

Abstract

With the advent of the presidential elections of 2002, a series of articles were corroborating the hypothesis that the Brazilian economy is going through a specific type of fiscal dominance (Blanchard, 2004), (Fávero; Giavazzi, 2004). Within this context, it was stated that in an environment of high public debt, the relevant debt indexed to foreign currency and in an environment of great aversion to risk by foreign investors, an increase in interest rates could lead to a corresponding increase acceleration of inflation. This occurs due to an increase in interest being interpreted by investors as an increase in the probability of default, which would result in a flight of capital and the consequent exchange rate depreciation. After more than six years of the new government, the debt began a trajectory of decline and debt indexed to the dollar was removed. Despite this change in fiscal conditions, this paper empirically suggests that fiscal dominance continues to exert its effects on the economy, but now a more lenient than in the previous period. Key words: fiscal dominance; economic policy coordination; monetary policy. Artigo recebido em 05 nov. 2009.