Efeitos da economia argentina na economia do Rio Grande do Sul sob o abrigo do Mercosul: Estudo empírico de criação e desvio de comércio

Abstract

This investigation work has the purpose of analyzing empirically in static and “ex-post” form, the effects of Mercosul on the economy of RS, in terms of the welfare of economic agents in the region through the estimation of Trade Diversion and Trade Creation effects by using a Trade Policy Simulation Model — TPSM, for the period of January of 1995 to June of 2004. The study is limited to Argentina because, besides being Brazil’s main partner in the Mercosul, it is the second country in importance for the exports of the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The obtained results show that under the Customs Union, the process of Trade Creation out weighted the Trade Diversion one, which implies improvement of the well being of the economic agents in the RS. In this regard, the trade flows between RS and Argentina, favored the later.