A determinação da taxa de juros em uma economia sob metas para inflação: ocaso brasileiro

Abstract

The response of the interest rate to both the gap between the inflation rate and a given target for inflation, and the gap between real GDP and potential real GDP is the main challenge under inflation targeting. With the aim of evaluating the adequacy of the adoption of the original Taylor’s rule in the determination of the basic Brazilian interest rate, the interest rate was calculated, based on this rule, after the implementation of the above-mentioned monetary regime. Furthermore, the influences of the departure of inflation from its target, of the output gap, of the Selic lagged, and of the country-risk, over the Selic rate were estimated. The findings denote that the Selic rate has neither an adequate level for leading to the achievement of the inflation targets nor is capable of maintaining the unemployment rate compatible with potential output.