Distribuições em cauda longa e comércio internacional: uma investigação empírica de padrões de concentração na pauta  de exportações do Espírito Santo, em 1996-2010

Matheus Albergaria de Magalhães; Victor Nunes Toscano

Long tail distributions and international trade: an empirical investigation of concentration patterns in the state of Espirito Santio’s exports, 1996-2010

Authors: Matheus Albergaria de Magalhães

Victor Nunes Toscano
Keywords:: Comércio Internacional, Lei de Zipf, Espírito Santo
Abstract: ABSTRACT The state of Espírito Santo can be characterized as a state whose economy tends to be highly affected by international trade. Degree of openness’ estimates point to values around 50%: that is, for every R$ 100 produced in the local economy, half of this value is destined to foreign trade. This work aims to verify concentration patterns in the state’s exports. In doing so, we analyze the main exported goods by the state for 180 countries over the last 15 years. Results obtained show that: (i) there are remarkable concentration patterns in the state’s exports, both in terms of exported values and destinations; (ii) in terms of exported values, one can observe a remarkably asymmetrical distribution, with nine goods responding for an 86.4% share of the state’s exports; (iii) in particular, there is a situation where only one good (iron ore) responds for more than 40% of exports; (iv) estimates related to long tail distributions demonstrate that exported values’ and destinations’ distributions cannot be characterized according to Zipf’s Law; (v) results of an econometric exercise point to the existence of a positive and statistically significant relation between the state’s exported values and the number of exported goods, the size of destination markets and the development degree of these markets. Such results are important not only in terms of confirming concentration patterns in the state’s international trade, but also for drawing attention to empirical patterns related to a small open economy, as seems to be the case for the state of Espírito Santo. Key words: international trade, Zipf’s Law, Espírito Santo. Classification JEL: C16, F10, R12. Artigo recebido em mar. 2011 e aceito para publicação em jun. 2012.
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Published: 2012-11-20
Issue: Vol. 33 No. 2 (2012)
Section: Artigos
License: A remessa dos artigos à revista implica a cessão dos direitos autorais à FEE.