Choques estruturais e teoria fiscal do nível de preços no Brasil: uma análise empírica para o período pós-metas de inflação

Abstract

ABSTRACT The purpose of the present working paper is to contribute with empirical literature concerning to the Fiscal Theory of Price Level (FTPL) in Brazil, having as base the Kim’s model (2003), which analyzes theoretical framework of the FTPL from structural shocks, especially demand and supply aggregate shocks. To carry through the empirical exercise, use of the analysis of the impulse response functions gotten of a structural vector auto-regressive (SVAR). We consider the Post-Real Plan data here (from January of 1995 until May of 2006). The results found allow us to affirm that it does not have empirical evidences favorable to the existence of a non-Ricardian regime in Brazil during the analyzed period, consistent fact with the empirical studies previously carried through. Key words Fiscal theory of price level; structural shocks; SVAR. Classificação JEL: C32 E31 H62 Artigo recebido em jun. 2012 e aceito para publicação em